IDC: Windows Phone will Ahead of iOS in 2016

The analysts at IDC released a prediction of smartphone market share for the next five years. According to them, Android will reach its top market share in 2012. Then the shipments of Android smartphones will begin to slow down. IDC said that Microsoft’s Windows Phone will move up and disturb the dominance of Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS.

Top 4 Smartphone OS in 2016 predicted by IDC

Top 4 Smartphone OS in 2016 predicted by IDC

IDC predicts that the growth of mobile phone shipments will reach the lowest point this year, only grow 4% from 1.7 billion units in last year to 1.8 billion units in this year. The decrease is caused by the declining of future phone sales and the lack of new phone buyers. However, in 2016 the situation will be changed because IDC predicts there will be 2.3 billion mobile phones are shipped at that time.

Android will remain on the top of smartphone OS market in the next 5 years, but IDC believes that its share will drop from 61% in the year to 52.9% in 2016. Largest phone sales will remain dominated by Samsung.

The growth of iOS smartphone is expected to constant while the share will drop from 20.5% in 2012 to 19% in 2016. IDC considers that market in developing countries will be a key factor.

The most interesting prediction of IDC is Windows Phone will be the number two smartphone in 2016. IDC still believes that if the sales of Nokia phones in developing countries continues to be maintained, then the Windows Phone shipments will reach 19.2% in 2016, up from 5.2% in this year. Microsoft and Nokia will increse WP market share by converting Symbian users to Windows Phone users.

Smartphone OS 2012 Market Share 2016 Market Share 2012-2016 CAGR
 Android 61.0% 52.9% 9.5%
 Windows Phone 5.2% 19.2% 46.2%
 iOS 20.5% 19.0% 10.9%
 BlackBerry OS 6.0% 5.9% 12.1%
 Others 7.2% 3.0% -5.4%
 Total 100% 100% 12.7%

Source: IDC Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker, June 6, 2012

Ivan Andrianto

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